Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Get set for the power vacuum of Syria.

As the leadership of the Syrian government secures its safe passage, the leaders of the rebel groups will intensify their infighting. This is the exact scenario that Russia and China have been voicing yet the west has denied. Syria is on the verge of looking more like Iraq, Afghanistan or Somalia. The reality of a regional war is becoming more a reality than ever. The threats of war between Israel and Iran will move a few steps closer to reality.  
So what do we do now?
Before the current government is completely gone there is still time to negotiate a massive international force to enter Syria. The reason for the force is to regain peace, uphold the constitution and assist with ensuring the laws of Syria. The forces should be comprised mostly of Chinese and Russian forces. Why these two? Western countries have made a mess of the area and have no credibility for maintaining peace in the region.
Those leaders that have called for the current leadership of Syria to be ousted should be put on notice for interfering with the sovereignty of Syria. All those calls have provided support to a group of rebels that are just as brutal if not more brutal than the current leadership of Syria.
What will most likely happen?
The world leaders will bicker about what do to and who is to blame. The average people/citizens of Syria will continue to pay the ultimate price. The rebel groups will increase the fighting amongst themselves. All in all, the situation in Syria will get much worse.
The real work will begin in the small communities. Hospitals, schools, markets, shops and gathering places will be the points of peace to focus on. From these areas, peace will spring up.  For the international efforts, there will be a push for aid. All the major aid donors will flock into Syria. 
There will still be high level negotiations which will mostly be a bunch of hot air that will waste more money than produce tangible results.  However, the leadership structure must be sorted out and it is better to have negotiations than a fire fight.
The unknown?
Will Iran and Israel be stupid enough to engage in war?
Will the United Nations Security Council stop acting like five year children and actually work to ensure peace?
Will the western countries stop supplying equipment to rebels?
How long will it take for a peaceful Syria to return?

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