Two State or Multiple Solution?

Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran have been dealing with the Kurdish peoples desire to have their own state for many years. That reality is shaping into being due to the recent collapse of Syria and Iraq. Not only is the possibility there for a Kurdis state but also a Sunni state in Iraq. In 2007 many people talked about the breakup of Iraq into three separate parts. During those times it was seen as insane to create three separate states. The reason being is that the three would be in a constant war scenario. Lost in that argument is that fact that Iraq was already in a constant war scenario. Here we are almost ten years later, still at war and still in dire need of solutions. The method of shooting our way through has only made things worse for the entire world. As we go back to seek another solution, the multi-state issue has cropped up again. Looking at the multi-state solution was not popular in with the Palestine/Israel conflict for many years either. Over time the reality has given leaders the wisdom of peace to understand that was the only real option to begin with. The same wisdom has just started to settle into the minds of those looking into the future of Iraq. Has the time come for the breakup of Iraq? To some extent Iraq has already broken up. For those that are fighting within Iraq they may believe that they are fighting for their state - such as Kurdistan. This scenario will be one of great complexity added to an already complex environment of chaos.

The rule of law?

The “Rule of Law” That sentiment is a base line for many governments and partnering agencies when building/forming societies. At the very root (the bottom to top structure) of a society is the reason a single person follows the rules of law. For the top down structure example, we have what Nazism did in Germany during the 1930’s. That example is what an organization can do when using every law properly and then, take hold of the governing power. With that example it is clear to see why “the rule of law” is not the only factor in having a peaceful society. The other factors rests in the ideology and morals of a person and organizations. Again, in simple terms, the rule of law is only as good as the moral law of the people. As was written in previous postings, the system of governance is not the issue. The issue rests with the people who operate/lead a system/society. Who a person listens to, follows, sees as an authority is very important. There is no greater example than the recruitment of soldiers to Islamic State. What rule of law are these people following? For the recruitment of soldiers, it is (in very simple terms) a psychological war, a war of education and shaping minds. The “Rule of Law” is an ideology which preaches peace, order and predictable outcomes. As with the Nazism example we know how the rule of law can be manipulated. Furthermore and more destructive is when the rule of law is completely ignored by those who preach such realities. Many of my past writings point to the many illegal actions of the Permanent Five Members of the United Nations Security Council (P5). In light of those actions, the formation of groups such as Islamic State are not shocking. The world has dealt with decades of proxy wars fought on behalf of the members of the P5 United Nations Security Council. During this time, the world has believed that might is right and now Islamic State is exercising that right. What rule of law is left to follow now? The P5 security leaders of the world do not follow the rules so why should anyone else? Here we are with a major global threat that was cultivated through the constant arrogance of the P5. The reality of today is a culmination of misguided actions. The Syrian situation is an example of such arrogance and misguided actions. On 26 Feb 2012 there was a referendum to change the constitution of Syria. The next day the civil war escalated with great ferocity. Russia supported the governing power while the Republic of the United States of America (RUSA) supported the rebels. Thus a proxy war taking place. The chaos that has ensued allowed the Islamic State to prosper. With a global situation that is worse than it was before, leaders are resorting to the one tactic which is a foundation of the “rule of law”. That tactic is to talk to eachother. At the beginning of the Syrian war many leaders said that such a tactic is useless. In reality peace talks are only as good as the moral intentions of the people doing the talking. At the outset of the Syrian war the only people that needed to be at the table were the current government leaders of Syria and the P5 members. Six people is all that was needed to solve the problem. Today, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Palestine, Israel, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and others have a good reason to be involved in such talks. The “rule of law” preaches that killing is a destructive act to society. However that law was ignored in the case of Syria and killing is what is taking place. The “rule of law” in Syria at this moment is “might makes right”. That method to the “rule of law” was taught by the P5 members, the very societies which were to uphold the ideology of peaceful society rooted in the “rule of law”. Hypocrisy, insanity and idiocy all mixed together is the only way to describe the leadership of the P5.

Chaos reigns from Mali to Afghanistan - Peace was the reason.

We are to learn from our experiences as wisdom tells us. Why do our leaders continue to use violence to bring peace? For example, the current band of insanity waging chaos known as Islamic State. This group of zealots have roots in Chechnya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Iran, Palestine, etc… Each of these places have been and still are hot zones of conflict. Each area has been on the international hit list of major military operations to bring peace. Each area has seen a military solution of killing. The quote below is a very popular ideology shared by Islamic State, Russia, RUSA and almost every warlord out there: “the only way to have any effect in this region and turn the tide is start killing...killing so many that the media can’t hide the fact that soldiers are returning to their motherland in body bags.” That quote has been altered but the core of its meaning remains steadfastly unaltered. Here is the link to the original quote, http://rt.com/usa/240829-kill-russians-fox-general-defiant/ At some point we must understand that violence is a breeding ground for hatred. The birth of Islamic State is a huge shining example of the poor leadership we are getting in regards to solving any major social uprising. When the Jasmine Revolution sprang into the Arab Spring, there was so much hope for peaceful transitions. Now we are not sure who is responsible for firing the first bullets. Some believe that protesters fired upon the civilians to spark a war, blame government forces and sit back as the chaos ensued. In other areas we had international forces engage in bombing raids such as Libya in 2011: Canadian foreign minister at the time, John Baird scribbled "Free Libya. Democracy" on one of our bombs before it was dropped on Gadhafi's crumbling forces. Whatever befell Libya, Baird predicted, "wouldn't be any worse than Col. Gadhafi." http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/before-canada-goes-too-far-into-iraq-remember-libya-afghanistan-1.2991218 Even in my postings during 2011, I was aware of the dangers of a power vacuum being created in Libya and Syria. We had a chance to talk our way through the transition but our leaders decided to shoot their way out. Well that strategy has brought us at least another decade of civil war in Libya, has destabilized North and West Africa to the point where we have a corridor of chaos stretching from Mali to Afghanistan. This enormous swath of chaos has been cultivated by politicians who have chosen to shoot their way to peace. As for the Ukraine, the only hope we have here is that it has both Russia and RUSA fighting eachother – proxy wars. Due to this fact an all out war is most likely not going to take place. Sadly it will drag on for a very long time. Here we are being lead into chaos by insane leaders speaking about peace as our decent into hell draws nearer. For what purpose? To what end? Furthermore, who is paying the price – civilians, children and the soldiers who follow orders.

Western influence to eastern influence: The change of economic power

Once upon a time the French dollar (Franc) was the global currency. Today the Republic of the United States dollar is seen as the global currency. For the past decade or so the areas where financial transactions take place have desired a new global currency. Due to this there has been a global discussion as to a new system. In a peace and conflict realm this discussion is very important. The importance hinges upon the fact that money/economics is seen as a driving force of power, control and influence. Since 1945 the dominant global organizations have been World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Those two organizations spawned the Asian Development Bank. What has been a major force in the discussion of a new system deals with emerging economies. India has a billion consumers, the continent of Africa is also on the verge of a billion consumers. China has been growing, also South America has been edging towards a larger consumer ratio. All of these areas are in deep need of peace development as well. The work that has been done to bring peace is far too slow. To help bring peace faster the need for a different financial funding system is being sought. In 2001 Brazil, Russia, India and China were seen as a new economic force, which brought the acronym BRIC into the world. This new economic group has been calling for a new system of global finance. Today that call has spawned the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and a possible new world currency. The first western country to jump on board is the United Kingdom. Behind all of this global money rests the lender being paid interest, gaining influence, expanding control and having power. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is rebuilding the “silk road”. This road will be both a step back in time as well as a new twist of reality for the world. Today the global development banks are western based. The new systems are eastern based. This change can have a major impact on a great many global organizations. These changes may also bring a certain period of unease, unknown and chaos. As mentioned, the discussions have been taking place for many years. Furthermore, power is always changing. Also, for those that have been aware, the western based countries have been challenged to make changes and are too slow in making changes. In simple terms, the world has had enough of the current power structure. The United Kingdom understands the need to join now and be at the table when the foundations are being set. The talk of having another global development bank has been taking place for sometime. Now the talk is almost over and action is required. The action is the redevelopment of the old silk road. This should be a very interesting change we are about to experience.

Rebels, Radicals, Terrorists, Freedom Fighters and Peacebuilders all need to be taught

In each of the labels above, there is a strong need to gather support. The need to gather support is the beginning of an education program. Without support a person is seen as the harmless lone wolf or just insane. Harmless until they reach a point where they feel violence is the only option. Even worse is a group that believes the information to a degree where they follow, defend and promote the ideology. In some circles these programs are called indoctrination, radicalisation, brain washing and/or culturalization. Even in a peaceful society the tactics of indoctrination are similar to what Islamic State uses. Every political party in existence uses the same tactics as well. For those that think Islamic State and Boko Haram use brutal tactics need only look at recent tactics used by members of the United Nations Security Council Permanent 5. Knowing this reality, each group understands that the youth are of great importance. As each of us go through life we are faced with all sorts of decisions and during the ages of 9-18, each of us will have a time of rebellion. This age group can even expand into the middle twenties or later. This stage of life is very important to acknowledge, understand and work with. The reason being is that a person is easier to mould when they are within that age group. Furthermore, a person belief system becomes hardened over time. Due to that fact a young person, once committed is usually a member for life. The most saddening part is that youth are often taught how to be violent rather than peaceful. The obvious question is - How else do you combat groups such as Islamic State or Boko Haram? The answer is simple. The answer is to work with each other. This is how every person is radicalized. Looking back in time had Iraq not been invaded would the Islamic State be as strong as it is? Also the Russian tactics in Chechnya have proven to bolster terrorist groups. Afghanistan as well has proven to be a wrong move. Now we are making the same mistakes in Ukraine as was made in Syria, Libya and of course the constant idiocy we tend to employ with regards to the Israel/Palestine situation. Peace is not easy, killing is. Also killing is an immediately gratifying solution. Since we are indoctrinated with a fast paced world mentality, a long process that peace is will not satisfy the current mentality. For example most of the world believes that the second world war ended in 1945. For those that understand peace, they know that wars never end, they just take on different forms. Again many believe the Cold War ended in 1989. Others see the break up of Yugoslavia as a continuation of that war. The battle within Georgia is also seen as a Cold War and so is the current war in Ukraine. Now to go even further back in time, the Crusades which have pitted Islam against Christianity is still being fought today. Jerusalem is still a city divided, Syria remains a battle ground as does Turkey and many North African countries. With all of these failing examples of killing each other to solve wars, why do we still employ such a failed tactic? The reason is rooted in the fact that those who act violently have been radicalized to believe peace is only possible through violence. Also killing is understood as a quick and easy solution. Whereas peace talks are understood to be unrealistic, to time consuming or even useless. The irony of such thought is that groups such as Islamic State, Boko Haram or any political group begins with talking and the every war we deem ended has done so through peace talks. It all comes down to education. Call it radicalization or psychological warfare, the need to engage each other is the base of each tactic. Whether it be for the building of a peaceful society or the destruction of society, indoctrinating people to a grand plan is a must.

Are we really committed to peacebuilding?

As the birthday of the United Nations is celebrated there are heated debates focused on its relevance, impact, success and its future. The chief reason for the United Nations is to maintain peace on a global scale. Crazy as it seems, on a global scale we are moving ever so slowly towards peace. However in contrasts, why is it that there is such a belief that war and chaos are rampant? Recently I heard an interview where the topic was that very question. One answer that I thought really made sense of the reality versus the perception was this comment: “News reports and information tells us about situations/realities that are out of the ordinary from our everyday life. The more we are made aware of war and chaos is partly due to the fact that we experience a relatively peaceful life”. That quote does have truth rooted in its point. However, there is a great deal of work still ahead for greater peace in the world. This goal of global peace, in reality is not going to arrive in the next few weeks or the next year. This is due to the collection of old minded leadership styles currently in power. There is no need for chaos to continue in places like Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Iraq or Afghanistan. The only reason that wars rage on in these areas is very much due to the lack of leadership in the world. For example, the world has a ready made solution to every war or civil collapse. This solution is peacekeeping with ceasefire agreements. Even though this solution exists the leaders of the world have failed to utilize this tool. When it does use peacekeeping strategy, implementation is so poorly executed that any mention of such tactic is quickly denounced. Furthermore the need for weapons bans are in deep need. We only have to look at the current ceasefire agreement in Ukraine to see how poorly we manage peace. Additional we can look how poorly the transition of peace in Libya has played out? Again, how much longer are we going to live with the insanity of the Palestine and Israel relationship? In each of the examples there have been all sorts of methods rooted in violence, fear, physical power dominance and revenge ideology used to bring peace. We have experienced the power vacuums created when such tactics are used as well. As these power vacuums become a reality, the next reality is a protracted war leading to a failed state. We have had enough of the failed methods used in Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Israel, and other conflict zones. It is time to really put the resources of a true ceasefire, peacekeeping, and negotiated governance model into action.

Ceasefire in Ukraine

“A glimmer of hope” That is how German Chancellor Angela Merkel describes the peace talks concerning Ukraine. She is very precise and honest in that observation. We all know how such cease fire agreements break down so easily. The most telling point which speaks to the hope of the ceasefire holding deals with those that sat at the table – France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. All four of these countries have a tangled relationship in politics, economics, and social investment to see peace return. One of the questions that remains is how true is the control of the people doing the actual fighting? All it will take for the entire agreement to fall apart is one rpg round fired by a person who has sees the agreement as faulty. From experience such agreements will be broken a number of times. Another question is the resolve of these leaders to work together in such cases where a rogue person does fire off a round or three. An indication of such an answer is the fact that these four made an agreement in such a short manner. That small time frame speaks to the resolve of these leaders to find diplomatic solutions as soon as possible. The reason for the relatively quick agreement is due to the fact that all sides realized there was no good outcome for anyone if the violence escalates. Russia certainly has no desire for another Chechnya as well as the economic impact of sanctions has to be considered. The same for France and Germany, a destabilized Ukraine will only bring more instability to the region. Such instability will leach into France and Germany. Both have had enough radical violence within their own countries in recent years to deal with. Also the economic costs are too high. Finally the people of Ukraine have endured enough senseless violence. The farther we move away from the first days of this crisis the less we recall the reality of how and why it began. Furthermore, the reality is that this war is one that need not have taken place at all. However, it did and so we must deal with what we have at hand. This ceasefire agreement is a glimmer of hope. Rebuilding the communities that have been destroyed can begin as the people try to return to homes and communities. Let us all pray that the violence will end and peace will hold.