After two years of idiocy, the leaders of the world are just now formulating plans to deweaponize Syria. What is even more absurd is that the leaders of the world have put the enormous burden of cleaning up the Syrian mess upon the United Nations – again. Of course these very same leaders will bark at the ineptness of the United Nations not realizing that no other organization would be able to do any better. Here we are today, knowing what had to be done two years ago. The only difference is that thousands of people are dead, Syria is about 60% destroyed and the regional tension is at a breaking point.
For the next year we will have to watch the idiots that made this mess argue about who will pay to clean it up. While that insane conversation takes place more people will be lost to the violence of the power vacuum within Syria. We already know that the opposition leadership is far from able to control itself now. As the legal government dwindles so will the ability to secure any form of government. Thus we will face the possibility of a total downward spiral into a broken state much like Somalia or Iraq and Afghanistan.
We know that the United Nations will be going in, under what guidelines are to be determined. Who will make up the rank and file of these peacekeepers? All neighbouring countries will no doubt be off the list of contributors. Going down the list of countries, I suspect that the contributing forces will be South American, Northern European with a sprinkle of South and Northern Asian. Perhaps Australia, Canada Germany, France and or Britain will provide logistical support.
How long will this mission take? With any luck the last peacekeeper will be off the line in fifty years. Aid organization will be there a little while longer if ever they leave. For those that are shocked at such a long time frame need to fully understand the complexity of societal peace. For example World War Two bases are still in operation in Germany. Canada had soldiers in Germany until the early 1990’s. With this reality a lengthy peace restoration mission is not uncommon.
Here we are looking at all the options to repair a broken country. We know that neither the current government nor the opposition leaders are worthy or able to lead Syria. This is the one transition that will take place. The collection of weapons, reintegration of soldiers, refugees returning and the rebuilding of infrastructure must begin as early as possible. As we move to the more complex issues of individual peace, there is a strong need for political/electoral transition programs.
To ensure a successful peace mission in Syria, there has to be the long term vision. There must also be a regional plans to demilitarize as well as how to engage in peaceful dialogue. These programs have to be focused upon the youth because the adults are far to cemented in their ideology. Not that adults cannot change their ideology, they are more likely not to change. Due to this we have to have the long term vision of peace so that the people in leadership roles now will be replaced with those that have a more flexible mind. That flexibility is understood to take a generation.