Afghanistan, what a mess.

Sadly the future of Afghanistan is looking to be as peaceful as it was in 2001. Already there are those that point to past wrongs that need to be answered. Now of course those wrongs need to be healed but the greater need is for the violence, war and general chaos to stop. To do this there needs to be a great effort from the regional leadership. Such a strategy has never been used to its fullest potential.

For the past ten years the use of weapons to bring peace in Afghanistan has failed. I wish it were not a failure but the reality is very evident that peace is far, far away.  Anyone that says the Afghanistan war has been a success is blind, stupid, ignorant or just lying. The reason for the failure is due to poor leadership.

At the outset of the war, the Taliban made it known that they were willing to fight for decades, not just one, many. The International Security Forces (ISAF), were fractured in both the ideology of military strategy and the ideology for going to war. These fractures lead to serious issues of commitment within the coalition forces. All these combined set the stage for a failed war. Today we are seeing greater attacks from the Taliban within Kabul and throughout Afghanistan.

What can be done now? We need to come to the realization that Afghanistan is back to square one. The regional peace may actually be worse than it was in 2001. Also we have to grasp the fact that Pakistan is itself embroiled in many battles. Next we have to ask where are the other countries that border Afghanistan?  They need to be at the table for peace as well. These are China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

These countries all have a vested interest in peace. Some may feel they are less so but that is for each of them to decide. The reality is the region is in chaos. A path forward needs to be mapped out because at present there is no idea or plan for regional peace.

There is one common element and that is no one wants the return of the Taliban. Much like the Nazi party, few of us see little reason for their existence. Most of us see the Taliban as a cancerous organization yet we have no medicine for its cure.  For peace talks to happen there has to be common ground. We know the Taliban has one condition to peace and that is the complete dismissal of the RUSA forces. The Afghanistan government has asked the RUSA to leave. They have stated that their date of exit 2014. That leaves the peace talks with the Taliban stagnant. Sadly a military effort will still be needed for an unknown time, perhaps for ever.

Basically we are left with the fact that the regional powers need to formulate a plan. They all need to engage in a common element of regional co-operation. The most important element is the need for action that is going to bring peace. The rhetoric and lies have to end.

Now we have to ask, Are the people in power now the right people? Who else is there that can be trusted to bring peace? Lastly, how do we fight a ghost which is the Taliban terrorizing an entire region?

South West Asian political region

As with any situation of peacebuilding, the regional reality must be taken into consideration. Regional stability is as important as the stability in any given country. Such an argument is clearly rooted in a theory known as the “domino theory”. Basically this theory points out that if one country falls into chaos it is likely that the surrounding countries are likely to fall as well. The reverse is also possible, if a country takes a firm grasp of peace the surrounding countries are more likely to become peaceful as well. Of course there are many factors, one being size. A small country of a few million people would not have much impact on a large country that has a population in the hundreds of millions, for example North Korea and China.

One such example where neighbouring countries are very similar and can influence each other are the countries of South Western Asia. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are the most notable in this political region. The others are .

Each of those countries are experiencing a society that has endured violent conflict in the past twenty years. This experience has impacted the region to a point where it is difficult to say that it is a peaceful region. Further to that each country has a population that have been nomadic throughout history so they have a deep history of shared culture and trade.

At first though there is usually a thought that this region has been at war for hundreds of years. However that is an outsider looking in. Being a nomadic people they would have had regular contact with other cultures. Given the fact that many cultures exist, cooperation and peaceful relations must have been the norm.  However the nomadic culture is a difficult one to bring into a society such as the modern world sees society.

This region is one where a governing system needs to be invented. I am not sure we have a system in place that will adequately deal with the cultural needs of these people. To me this is a very positive element for peace because only the people of this region can say what governing system they want.

The British tried to implement a system in this region as did Russia try. Now the United Nations along with a great many peacebuilding organizations have offices and programs throughout the region. Within Afghanistan, a consortium of countries are trying to build a system.

 The one area that the world can assist this region is with economic relations. Most of the political governance needs to be left up to the people. I think that this understanding is just now sinking in after more than a century of poorly executed military efforts.

Elections are sacred to the people

Syria just finished the referendum and the results indicate that the people wish to have a multiparty political system. Yemen just had their one candidate election as well with a 60% turnout. One candidate, why bother voting?

One of the fundamentals of life is personal choice. At the base of choice is the option we all have to continue living. Even then we have that choice taken away in certain circumstances. Going deeper into our existence we have society which has limits to what we should and should not do. Acts such as violence against another and theft are two examples of limits most societies discourage.

Another element society discourages has many names which is best described as dishonesty. These other named acts include fraud and corruption. With these examples the limits we put on each other are there to ensure a peaceful society. No matter what system people choose, these elements are quite universal. Whether the system is a democracy, dictatorship, monarchy or fascism, most systems have limits or guidelines for the general population to follow. Even then it is a personal choice to follow these limits or not.

On the topic of choice there will always come a time to choose those that will lead. The process of elections is a vital component to a legitimate government. When the process is tampered with to force a certain outcome, this act of corruption needs to carry as much weight as murder. In the world of politics, the punishment for murder is loss of power.

If the publics’ trust is diminished, rebuilding that trust will take more effort than it took to destroy it. For a peaceful society to flourish, the elements of trust and freedom to choose are corner stones to build on. There will be times when the people may not like the options but if they trust the information provided they will follow the decisions made.

The electoral process is the most sacred part of any legitimate society. If that process can not be trusted, the entire society will crumble. We are witnessing this very thing all over the world.

Egypt and Libya will be going through elections very soon. Each will have a very difficult time with ensuring the peaceful transition. There will be many calls of voting fraud because such tactics point to legitimacy of government. if the trust of the process is questioned the entire government and the system in place is questioned.

Here in Canada we are dealing with our own issues of election fraud. Not if fraud happened but why. To me this is act should bring down the political party holding power in government. For such an act to take place is nothing short of spitting on the graves of every person who paid their lives in Afghanistan. Such an act is illegal and people need to serve jail sentences. The system has been tampered with and it is in question. The line of chaos is still very far off in Canada but if such acts are not treated with great severity we will march closer to chaos. This entire situation is an example of the hypocrisy in which societies fall.

Without trust in society and trust in the systems to assist society there is no peace in that future.

Peaceful game theory

Last night I got into a discussion on what game theory is.  Now I have been a student of theories my entire life, as I see it.  All that information got snarled up before I could say a word, so it was not easy to define game theory in a flash. However I did realize that we were playing a card game so I used that as my analogy.

Game theory is the study of strategy used to get results.  It is a plan to win a chess game, to win a hockey game, an election, war or even to get a job.  The strategy you employ (whether you know your strategy or not) is the game theory you use to obtain your goal.   Everyone uses game theory.  One of the most popular theories is fight or flight.  That has been changed to fight, freeze or flight due to the fact that some people get so nervous that they can do nothing but collapse/freeze.

When we have events such as the Jasmine Revolution, we can look to see what the theory was and map it out.  Did Mohamed Bouazizi know that his actions would spark the Jasmine Revolution, would cause a number of other events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen and the Occupy movement all over the world?  You would have to believe that he did not.  However his own personal actions had been rooted in the theory that if he set himself on fire the government would take notice and make changes to the current system.  That was his game theory and he was right.

Now this is a very simple example of game theory.  There are much more complex psychological strategies which have been studied.  Yet the currents and streams of thought on the subject all deal with plans that a person or group uses to achieve a goal.

Game theory is often studied along with the art of decision making and information gathering.  These three elements are all part of strategy.  You need the right information to make the best decision so that the correct strategy is used.

For example we can ask why a government would rather shoot its people than allow protesting.  The initial reason is to gain control of the populous.  Governments feel threatened by large mobs of protesters so that mob has to be put down.  That is one level.  The other level is the personal one where the person in charge, Prime Minister, President or General also feels that their life is in danger or their job.  This personal level hinges on dignity, power and self-image.  The leader feels that the people should be grateful for the life provided and a large protest is a slap in the face.  Also the leader sees a possibility that they will be ousted from power so that has to be fought.  Next there is the image that no one else has the right to hold the position that the leader now holds, it is theirs and the mob is trying to steal it.

How leaders deal with these perceptions is where game theory comes in.  They must ask themselves, what is the best method to end the protest, to retain power and to regain the admiration of the people.  Shooting them is a popular choice because it does work, for a time.  Shooting and killing is the theory employed in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Burma, Columbia, Libya, DRC and the list goes on.

For peaceful examples we have Poland Solidarity Movement 1980, Czechoslovakia Velvet Revolution 1989 which lead to the peaceful 1993 seperation of the Czech Rebublic and Slovakia, and the Ukraine Orange Revolution 2004.  Each has taken place in the last few decades.  We can go further back for examples of peaceful revolutions yet these are perfect enough.  As you can see the use of peace as a strategy is a successful game theory and it often results in a stronger country.  Of the peaceful examples Ukraine had a number of setbacks, yet the initial game theory of peaceful demonstration worked. 

That is a quick summation of game theory.  My theory in the game of understanding is that by using such broad examples it is easily understood. 

Just as I was writing this I have learned that Vaclav Havel has died this morning.  He was the person put up as the leader for the Velvet Revolution. Rest in peace my friend you did a great job, we need more like you. 

Iraq and Afghanistan

These two countries are in a similar state today yet in 1999 that was not the case.

Ten years ago Iraq was on its way to becoming a peaceful country.  The president was predictable and co-operative enough to provide for stability.  There was a great hope in the region that the world was comfortable with the balance of power and progression of peace.  Then along came the RUSA and bombed the hell out of that entire security net.  The world should never let this fact be idle chatter. 

Afghanistan is different than Iraq.  Ten years ago the people of Afghanistan lived under constant instability for decades.  Today the situation is the same.  The people live with daily threats of violence, political instability and the chaos of an unknown future.

These two wars are still being fought yet the main combatant is leaving because they can no longer handle the cost – mentally, physically or economically.  In short they lost all will and capacity.  In this act of leaving now the impact will not be fully felt for years.  The violence in both Iraq and Afghanistan will increase as the power vacuum take shape.

This is the reality we must prepare for.  Iraq and Afghanistan will be lawless, violent and brutal places to live.  Ten years ago we had peace within our sights in Iraq.  A stable Iraq is a dream right now as much as a stable Afghanistan is.

Where do we go from here?

That question is very difficult to answer.  I do know that we will be living with the stagnation of chaos for some time, years for sure, decades possibly.  Peace in both countries will now be in the care of a very fragile national government with the assistance of patch work NGOS.  Peace will be fought for using a chaos of organizations with no singular clear vision or plan.  The people will be torn in a great many directions as they seek certainty.  All the while the United Nations will be seized with the issues in both countries and that is where stagnation of chaos will supplant itself for years to come.

If the five members of the Security Council actually had a collective mind, one that was built on co-operation and peaceful discourse of civilian life, we would have a vastly different world.  I do think there would still be wars but not on the scale of what we have today.

Looking back in history we can equate the two situations to Vietnam 1975, Cambodia 1975, Burma 1960 and even Afghanistan in 1989.  If peace were the ultimate goal in either of those countries the world would be a vastly different place.  We can always wonder what life would be like if the policies of Soviet Russia(1978) met with the policies of the RUSA in 2002?  Both wanted the Taliban out, both wanted a peaceful national governing system, both wanted an independent Afghanistan and both wanted enough to send its own soldiers.  Peace is not always the ultimate goal, revenge and dominance usually is.

Iraq and Afghanistan are areas that produce more violence.  Soviet Russia had sought peace in Afghanistan during the 1980's only to provide a venue for a RUSA proxy war.  The result is what we have today.  The same situation in Iraq/Iran in the 1970's played out as proxy wars.  Today we should have great concern for what both Iraq and Afghanistan will progress into.  Mostly this concern is due to a very weak resolve of world leadership. 

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been won by the people that are there now and will be there next year.  Sadly I must say that even my home country of Canada has lost its first war in Afghanistan due to politcal mismangement and political cowardice.