Foreign Intervention in Syria

The United Nations Security Council has voted that no foreign military intervention is to take place. Now we are learning that the RUSA is positioning forces. Plus rumours are swarming of the RUSA arming their sworn enemy Al-Quaeda. The positioning of forces is a not an intervention in Syria. The arming of opposition forces is an intervention.  

In the world of politics, such speculation of rumours usually has truth to it. Weapons are being provided to the opposition somehow. The bordering countries are Turkey to the north meeting up with Iraq to the east. The Iraq border continues south to meet with Jordan. Moving west the Jordanian border moves along to meet up with Israel. This border moves north to meet with Lebanon. The Lebanese border moves north then turns west to the Mediterranean Sea.

Iraq is not stable enough to even monitor its borders so weapons would be easily brought in through that area. All the other countries are questionable at best. Also you have to question the security at any sea port. Add to that the capacity and ingenuity of people to get weapons in.

As China and Russia take a great deal of heat for voting no, the points in which they based their thought upon was correct. The other three members of the United Nations Security Council actively pushed for the current government to step down. This push is a direct interference in the sovereignty of that country and that course of action is as responsible for each death as China and Russia are. However, placing blame does not solve the problem and I should not play that way either. Setting the record straight is of no importance to a child being held in complete fear.

The Permanent Five members of the Security Council, (China, RUSA, Russia, France and UK) and the government of Syria need to cobble a team together, send them to Homs to hammer out a game plan. No luxury hotels or ten car motorcades, get in there and do not come out until all of you have an agreed game plan.

Again I live in a bit of a dream world. I know there is no strong will to solve anything with the determination that is necessary. If we had such a will, Israel and Palestine would be a thriving metropolis filled with cruise ships, hotel strips, vacation resorts and region wide support for all the religious celebrations. The peaceful celebrations of the major religions would be a universal positive impact to all people. Unfortunately we have war, hatred, segregation, and deep rooted racism flourishing throughout the region.

Peaceful game theory

Last night I got into a discussion on what game theory is.  Now I have been a student of theories my entire life, as I see it.  All that information got snarled up before I could say a word, so it was not easy to define game theory in a flash. However I did realize that we were playing a card game so I used that as my analogy.

Game theory is the study of strategy used to get results.  It is a plan to win a chess game, to win a hockey game, an election, war or even to get a job.  The strategy you employ (whether you know your strategy or not) is the game theory you use to obtain your goal.   Everyone uses game theory.  One of the most popular theories is fight or flight.  That has been changed to fight, freeze or flight due to the fact that some people get so nervous that they can do nothing but collapse/freeze.

When we have events such as the Jasmine Revolution, we can look to see what the theory was and map it out.  Did Mohamed Bouazizi know that his actions would spark the Jasmine Revolution, would cause a number of other events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen and the Occupy movement all over the world?  You would have to believe that he did not.  However his own personal actions had been rooted in the theory that if he set himself on fire the government would take notice and make changes to the current system.  That was his game theory and he was right.

Now this is a very simple example of game theory.  There are much more complex psychological strategies which have been studied.  Yet the currents and streams of thought on the subject all deal with plans that a person or group uses to achieve a goal.

Game theory is often studied along with the art of decision making and information gathering.  These three elements are all part of strategy.  You need the right information to make the best decision so that the correct strategy is used.

For example we can ask why a government would rather shoot its people than allow protesting.  The initial reason is to gain control of the populous.  Governments feel threatened by large mobs of protesters so that mob has to be put down.  That is one level.  The other level is the personal one where the person in charge, Prime Minister, President or General also feels that their life is in danger or their job.  This personal level hinges on dignity, power and self-image.  The leader feels that the people should be grateful for the life provided and a large protest is a slap in the face.  Also the leader sees a possibility that they will be ousted from power so that has to be fought.  Next there is the image that no one else has the right to hold the position that the leader now holds, it is theirs and the mob is trying to steal it.

How leaders deal with these perceptions is where game theory comes in.  They must ask themselves, what is the best method to end the protest, to retain power and to regain the admiration of the people.  Shooting them is a popular choice because it does work, for a time.  Shooting and killing is the theory employed in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Burma, Columbia, Libya, DRC and the list goes on.

For peaceful examples we have Poland Solidarity Movement 1980, Czechoslovakia Velvet Revolution 1989 which lead to the peaceful 1993 seperation of the Czech Rebublic and Slovakia, and the Ukraine Orange Revolution 2004.  Each has taken place in the last few decades.  We can go further back for examples of peaceful revolutions yet these are perfect enough.  As you can see the use of peace as a strategy is a successful game theory and it often results in a stronger country.  Of the peaceful examples Ukraine had a number of setbacks, yet the initial game theory of peaceful demonstration worked. 

That is a quick summation of game theory.  My theory in the game of understanding is that by using such broad examples it is easily understood. 

Just as I was writing this I have learned that Vaclav Havel has died this morning.  He was the person put up as the leader for the Velvet Revolution. Rest in peace my friend you did a great job, we need more like you.