Peace is slipping in Libya

The Libyan armed revolution was to be over when the former leader was killed. However in the past few months there have been reports of growing tribal aggression. We were aware that such a thing was possible. It is a common reality that such events happen. However, the cycle did not have to happen.

The upside is that Libya is not fully engulfed in another civil war –just yet. The reality of civil war is slowly marching to existence though. At this point we have a very disturbing question to ask, “At what cost will peace be made?” The payoff is usually in the form of political power.

I have written about the peaceful transition of power many times. One such topic is Negotiated Governance, this is exactly where Libya rests at the moment. They are negotiating how and who will govern the country. This negotiation can take place using words, elections and votes or the exchange of bullets. Either way the argument is going to take place. When all is lost the bullets will come to life.

There is still time to keep the guns silent and we have squandered much of that time in the past six months. Due to that it will take an even greater effort to communicate in peace with words to slow the anger and lower the weapons. We do know that the current tactics being used for the communication of a common goal in Libya is not effective.

At the moment we have very little time to draw up new plans. The best possible method is to increase the communication, power sharing and broaden the circle for discussion, planning and decision making. Let us not forget that Libya wants to have elections in June. The chances for a peaceful election under this current pressure is getting worse.

As I stated before the international community needs to severely boost aid in the targeted areas where violence is threatened. The focus of the aid needs to be an all out ceasefire agreement coupled with awareness/education programs, and a decentralisation of the governing power structure. Not an easy task. As crazy as this sounds, the people of Libya were calling for this very action back in December. We have wasted all that time.

As communication failures mount and groups voice their options to use violence the rhetoric also escalates. This sinking to the stupidity of violence can be averted if the will of the world is there to be wise. Too be honest though, I am not too optimistic that such wisdom will prevail.

control the weapons or the mind?

Elections are an important part of a free society. When the people have trust in the system to choose who is going to be the leader, that feeling expands into everyday life of the people. Right now we have an election process taking place in Burma. This process is taking place after years of harsh political censorship and control.

The ability of a government to control the people in such a manner (as has happened in Burma), usually employs violence. As a country begins to come out of that situation of violence and fear there is still the threat of violence. Mainly the threat continues because the old power structure is still fighting. To decrease the violence there needs to be a concerted effort to eliminate the flow of weapons.

We are witnessing this flow of weapons in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and many other countries as well. The flow of weapons keeps the society destabilized and in fear. To combat the destabilization of society, disrupt the flow of weapons and bring peace is a multi-level task.

The problem is international in scope.  During July 2012, UN member states will meet to negotiate a legally binding international instrument governing the transfer of conventional arms: the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). The problem is, will this stop the weapons trade?

The war in Sierra Leone and Liberia was fuelled by diamonds and timber. As the war became as savage as a war has ever been, the world took measures to end the trade in “blood diamonds”. The measure taken is known as the Kimberely Process. This process did stem the flow of diamonds for a time. What we have to realize is that the people engaged in trading diamonds for weapons are criminals.  They will continue to work outside of treaties and laws.

The concern is that we must know the Arms Trade Treaty will not end the illegal trade of weapons. Of course having these laws is better than not. The largest demon in all of this is the desire to grab power/control through the use of fear, violence and oppression. The quick demise of peace in Cote D’ivoire is another example in the use of fear, weapons and oppression.

The battle of human relations is the largest demon we have to tackle. All the weapons in the world will have no bearing if the people who own them have no desire to use them. However, we live in a world where insanity is present, people will kill for power and build weapons to instil fear.

The positive element rests in the balance of peace. Most of us are peaceful. We wish to trust each other and enjoy the many differences of the world. We enjoy the process of debate, the camaraderie of sport and the challenge of opposition. Elections are filled with such elements. Furthermore, All of these elements in society are positives. It stops to be positive when fear, violence and oppression are used to gain power and control over another and that is where war begins to be fought ultimately  in the mind.

Elections are sacred to the people

Syria just finished the referendum and the results indicate that the people wish to have a multiparty political system. Yemen just had their one candidate election as well with a 60% turnout. One candidate, why bother voting?

One of the fundamentals of life is personal choice. At the base of choice is the option we all have to continue living. Even then we have that choice taken away in certain circumstances. Going deeper into our existence we have society which has limits to what we should and should not do. Acts such as violence against another and theft are two examples of limits most societies discourage.

Another element society discourages has many names which is best described as dishonesty. These other named acts include fraud and corruption. With these examples the limits we put on each other are there to ensure a peaceful society. No matter what system people choose, these elements are quite universal. Whether the system is a democracy, dictatorship, monarchy or fascism, most systems have limits or guidelines for the general population to follow. Even then it is a personal choice to follow these limits or not.

On the topic of choice there will always come a time to choose those that will lead. The process of elections is a vital component to a legitimate government. When the process is tampered with to force a certain outcome, this act of corruption needs to carry as much weight as murder. In the world of politics, the punishment for murder is loss of power.

If the publics’ trust is diminished, rebuilding that trust will take more effort than it took to destroy it. For a peaceful society to flourish, the elements of trust and freedom to choose are corner stones to build on. There will be times when the people may not like the options but if they trust the information provided they will follow the decisions made.

The electoral process is the most sacred part of any legitimate society. If that process can not be trusted, the entire society will crumble. We are witnessing this very thing all over the world.

Egypt and Libya will be going through elections very soon. Each will have a very difficult time with ensuring the peaceful transition. There will be many calls of voting fraud because such tactics point to legitimacy of government. if the trust of the process is questioned the entire government and the system in place is questioned.

Here in Canada we are dealing with our own issues of election fraud. Not if fraud happened but why. To me this is act should bring down the political party holding power in government. For such an act to take place is nothing short of spitting on the graves of every person who paid their lives in Afghanistan. Such an act is illegal and people need to serve jail sentences. The system has been tampered with and it is in question. The line of chaos is still very far off in Canada but if such acts are not treated with great severity we will march closer to chaos. This entire situation is an example of the hypocrisy in which societies fall.

Without trust in society and trust in the systems to assist society there is no peace in that future.

Syria, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain are all on a similar path.

What happens in Syria if the current government is toppled?

We have many examples to look at, Egypt and Libya are two.  There will be a struggle of communicating effectively and making progression swift enough. Both of these will combine to erode the legitimacy of any new government.

In Egypt the military is still in power. In Libya the government is an ad hoc group that was a natural progression. Now in Libya the international support has dried up leaving it twisting in the wind. In both situations the people are left to seek other options other than what is being offered at the moment. These options will come from armed groups because we live in a reality where might makes right.

This might makes right attitude can only be culled by the mass peaceful rally of the people. We have learned from Poland, Czech Republic and Egypt that if the people stand united in peaceful mass rallies, the use of violence is defeated. The defeat of violence will give space for peace.

Next there needs to be a strong effort to communicate the planning process. This process has to have a constant avenue for public inclusion. Such inclusion provides transparency, legitimacy, stability, and unity. With these four elements, society will hold a great deal of patience as a new government is brought to power.

There is no mystery to how or why revolutions take place. The people simply no longer trust the leaders, they feel alienated by their own government and they lived with fear of the government too long. This combination of reality factors in every revolution. At the moment mistrust and alienation are quickly rising in Libya.

A peaceful transition is still very possible in Libya. What needs to be done is a major show of support by the international community in the form of leadership visits, major funding of programs, and infrastructure building. Within this support, armed groups will have a point of reference to hold trust in as the governance processes are continually worked on.

The capacity is there and so is the determination of the people to achieve peace. What is missing is the work needed to connect the people with the government on a unified vision of the future. At the moment there is no such unified vision, nor is there an avenue for dialogue to discuss this vision.

Communication builds trust, it can also destroy trust as well though. Due to that, the communication must settle on finding a cohesive and agreeable path forward to peace. At the moment the communication between the government and the people of Libya needs greater support and effort.

With all of the above, we can see exactly the same situation in Syria. Poor communication, mistrust, no clear vision of the future, alienation of the people and ultimately violence can be mapped out to see how Syria fell into such chaos. The road back to peace will begin with lowering the weapons, increased communication, inclusion of the people and building a common vision of the way forward.

Biased Media or Lazy Readers?

Going about my day I was reading stories about the countries that are experiencing the Jasmine Revolution ripple effect/Arab Spring. I hit upon a few news items that discussed the number of countries impacted. As I looked at this list I began to feel information overload, it is quite a list of countries. Then I thought of the great equalizer of quick information, Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Others

Take a look at that.  Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria are the most often referred to but somehow Yemen has stayed off the watch list. So has a Bahrain and I recall protests in China as well. After a bit more searching I came across one opinion for the lack of information on all the other protests. It was biased media.

http://rt.com/news/bahrain-iran-double-standards-us-319/

The two links above provide information as do the websites of the United Nations, Alertnet, ReliefWeb, and others.

Now I have been very harsh towards the media and sometimes I am overly critical. As I search, there are reports from each country that are experiencing protests. The media is doing their job. Here in Canada I would have to say that few know we have imposed sanctions on Syria. My point here is that the media needs our help to dig for information as well.  

I do wish there was a one site for all news but there is not. Multiple sites have to be searched. This is no different than the fact that any large city usually has three or more daily newspapers. Each has its own identity or bias and with each you should delve into that understanding of the world.

There is a great deal of life going on in the world and no one news outlet can handle all of it. This is very much a case of the individual having the intelligence to seek out all the sources they can. The capability to do that is exactly why technology has been pushed on us. The crazy part is that we are still too lazy to do the work.

Imagine the person that only gets their news from one source? Now imagine having a conversation about world events with that person. Is it the of fault media for not presenting more information to its readers? There was a time when I would have given a large yes to that question. Now I am a great deal more understanding because doing such a thing is near impossible. However I am sure that each news outlet will defend their balanced news reporting.

On another point, the media is not just newspapers and websites. There are academic papers, documentaries, government websites and of course the blogs.  There is a wide spectrum of thought out there, some insane, some perplexing, some compelling and others you just wonder who even needs to know such things. Happy news searching.

Libya 14 Feb 2012

In the past month or two there has been very little news in the mainstream media about Libya. Everyone must feel that the transition is going well. This is the time to increase the attention on Libya and raise the level of support.

The situation in Libya has improved since the revolution but the transition is still a work in progress. Security is still the main focus of peace due to the amount of weapons in the hands of “irresponsible people”. The hope is that these people will transition into the national army. We have to acknowledge the reality that some will continue to operate in conflict with the peace. We still have gang violence in Canada so why would there not be such activity in Libya?

I recall a conversation I had in 2003 with a number of soldiers while we shared a few beverages concerning Haiti.  We were talking about the best way to clear that country of weapons. The tactic most agreed to was a dragnet tactic (I can not recall the military term, perhaps it was “sweep”). Although each soldier noted that it would never be used because of the time and cost. There is another reason too. The argument against such a tactic is that once you have gone over the area you have to go over it again and again.

Dragnet tactics is simple to understand as dragging a net across the ground. You can see it being used in wars where battle lines drawn, World War Two for example. With situations such as Libya, there are no lines, other than the existing international borders. The tactics used in such cases are what is known as sector security reform.

Sector security is the setting up of military posts and that post is in charge of a certain area or sector. This method has been around for centuries. Basically it is the same as the local police station in any town. They have a defined sector to patrol and hold. France and Britain used it here in North America building forts and out posts. It is the most popular method of war/peace operations today.

The situation in Libya is best suited for sector security because of the tribal composition, weak national army and lack of legitimate authority held by the Libyan government. To ensure that sustainable peace returns to Libya, a strong communication effort must be implemented. There was a major effort in the later days of November and that needs to be followed up with another very soon.

The Tribal leaders have to meet again and discuss the issue of sustainable peace. This has to be the main focus for the people at the moment. The communication effort must focus on the security of each tribe and the efforts that each tribal leader has taken to secure the legitimacy of the current government.

If democracy is what the people want, these talks need to share authority and responsibility of sustaining peace. The grand vision of Libya has to be framed in the view of individual peace as it relates to national peace. Each person needs to feel their part in being responsible for a peaceful country. The armed groups need to understand that power is not being taken away, it is being shared. The best way forward is to share the responsibility of protection. Any tribe or group that violently works against this idea will only be maintaining a cycle of instability.

Libya may seem to be off the news headlines right now but this is the time when efforts must be stepped up. The lack of attention is a point where things can go wrong quickly. To me it feels like a calm before the storm.  

Peaceful game theory

Last night I got into a discussion on what game theory is.  Now I have been a student of theories my entire life, as I see it.  All that information got snarled up before I could say a word, so it was not easy to define game theory in a flash. However I did realize that we were playing a card game so I used that as my analogy.

Game theory is the study of strategy used to get results.  It is a plan to win a chess game, to win a hockey game, an election, war or even to get a job.  The strategy you employ (whether you know your strategy or not) is the game theory you use to obtain your goal.   Everyone uses game theory.  One of the most popular theories is fight or flight.  That has been changed to fight, freeze or flight due to the fact that some people get so nervous that they can do nothing but collapse/freeze.

When we have events such as the Jasmine Revolution, we can look to see what the theory was and map it out.  Did Mohamed Bouazizi know that his actions would spark the Jasmine Revolution, would cause a number of other events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen and the Occupy movement all over the world?  You would have to believe that he did not.  However his own personal actions had been rooted in the theory that if he set himself on fire the government would take notice and make changes to the current system.  That was his game theory and he was right.

Now this is a very simple example of game theory.  There are much more complex psychological strategies which have been studied.  Yet the currents and streams of thought on the subject all deal with plans that a person or group uses to achieve a goal.

Game theory is often studied along with the art of decision making and information gathering.  These three elements are all part of strategy.  You need the right information to make the best decision so that the correct strategy is used.

For example we can ask why a government would rather shoot its people than allow protesting.  The initial reason is to gain control of the populous.  Governments feel threatened by large mobs of protesters so that mob has to be put down.  That is one level.  The other level is the personal one where the person in charge, Prime Minister, President or General also feels that their life is in danger or their job.  This personal level hinges on dignity, power and self-image.  The leader feels that the people should be grateful for the life provided and a large protest is a slap in the face.  Also the leader sees a possibility that they will be ousted from power so that has to be fought.  Next there is the image that no one else has the right to hold the position that the leader now holds, it is theirs and the mob is trying to steal it.

How leaders deal with these perceptions is where game theory comes in.  They must ask themselves, what is the best method to end the protest, to retain power and to regain the admiration of the people.  Shooting them is a popular choice because it does work, for a time.  Shooting and killing is the theory employed in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Burma, Columbia, Libya, DRC and the list goes on.

For peaceful examples we have Poland Solidarity Movement 1980, Czechoslovakia Velvet Revolution 1989 which lead to the peaceful 1993 seperation of the Czech Rebublic and Slovakia, and the Ukraine Orange Revolution 2004.  Each has taken place in the last few decades.  We can go further back for examples of peaceful revolutions yet these are perfect enough.  As you can see the use of peace as a strategy is a successful game theory and it often results in a stronger country.  Of the peaceful examples Ukraine had a number of setbacks, yet the initial game theory of peaceful demonstration worked. 

That is a quick summation of game theory.  My theory in the game of understanding is that by using such broad examples it is easily understood. 

Just as I was writing this I have learned that Vaclav Havel has died this morning.  He was the person put up as the leader for the Velvet Revolution. Rest in peace my friend you did a great job, we need more like you. 

Fear, Security, Power, Rights and Dreams

When a government uses fear to control, uses threats of violence to persuade and speaks to the need for the use of physical force to defend freedom, we are all in for chaos and hell.

There is no greater threat to peace than physical violence.  There is not greater threat than an insane person with the capacity to use violence.  Right now all I can see are the ones that have the capacity to use violence are the ones that are insane.

As individuals we are all very much alike.  As we begin to form groups we lose a little bit of our commonalities.  These groups we gravitate to become insulated and the fear of the other starts.  Russia is now in the midst of such a battle, Libya has gone through such a battle and may have a further war developing due to the desires of group power struggle.  Europe is going through a very difficult time and the causes are so complex that a solution is lost due to the search for blame. 

In these situations, the words that divide us have become so vague that mistrust builds exponentially.  We are experiencing a nuclear explosion of mistrust around the world.  It is difficult to find a government that is trusted by its people.  This mistrust builds fear, which is met with a need for security, which is secured through a show of power, which is justified through our right to protect, which was developed from a dream that we should live peacefully. 

We are caught in a prisoner’s dilemma.

That is why I wrote about game theory a few days ago.  We are involved in a game of Russian roulette.  There is only one strategy in that game, be in or out.  To phrase it another way as it was once stated, with us or against us.  Such a game is pure chaos.  To be part of such a game acknowledges that you have no hope for the future; it is an all or nothing end game.  The problem we face is that the leaders are at the table playing roulette yet they are pointing the gun at the citizens.  In turn the citizens know that the gun only has a limited number of bullets so fire away.  This is the enduring spirit of the dream that peace will prevail.

We have seen peaceful demonstrations all over the world, many that were countered with bullets and all with some degree of public disdain –such as the occupy protests in Canada.  The part in which the peaceful protesters play in this game is very dangerous.  The protesters know they can be killed but they also know that a just society is possible.

In Egypt and Tunisia, ultimately the soldiers would not fire upon people.  We had seen this same peaceful resolve during the Russian August coup in 1991 and I believe that we have witnessed the same resolve in Russia during the past weeks.  Libya was not so lucky, neither is Syria, Yemen or the DRC.

We are indeed living through an interesting time period.  The political games that are now taking place have deep connections to history.  Political lines are being redrawn, new identities being forged, flawed ideology are being brought to light and discarded, hopefully the result will provide for ideology and strategy for peace.