Syria, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain are all on a similar path.

What happens in Syria if the current government is toppled?

We have many examples to look at, Egypt and Libya are two.  There will be a struggle of communicating effectively and making progression swift enough. Both of these will combine to erode the legitimacy of any new government.

In Egypt the military is still in power. In Libya the government is an ad hoc group that was a natural progression. Now in Libya the international support has dried up leaving it twisting in the wind. In both situations the people are left to seek other options other than what is being offered at the moment. These options will come from armed groups because we live in a reality where might makes right.

This might makes right attitude can only be culled by the mass peaceful rally of the people. We have learned from Poland, Czech Republic and Egypt that if the people stand united in peaceful mass rallies, the use of violence is defeated. The defeat of violence will give space for peace.

Next there needs to be a strong effort to communicate the planning process. This process has to have a constant avenue for public inclusion. Such inclusion provides transparency, legitimacy, stability, and unity. With these four elements, society will hold a great deal of patience as a new government is brought to power.

There is no mystery to how or why revolutions take place. The people simply no longer trust the leaders, they feel alienated by their own government and they lived with fear of the government too long. This combination of reality factors in every revolution. At the moment mistrust and alienation are quickly rising in Libya.

A peaceful transition is still very possible in Libya. What needs to be done is a major show of support by the international community in the form of leadership visits, major funding of programs, and infrastructure building. Within this support, armed groups will have a point of reference to hold trust in as the governance processes are continually worked on.

The capacity is there and so is the determination of the people to achieve peace. What is missing is the work needed to connect the people with the government on a unified vision of the future. At the moment there is no such unified vision, nor is there an avenue for dialogue to discuss this vision.

Communication builds trust, it can also destroy trust as well though. Due to that, the communication must settle on finding a cohesive and agreeable path forward to peace. At the moment the communication between the government and the people of Libya needs greater support and effort.

With all of the above, we can see exactly the same situation in Syria. Poor communication, mistrust, no clear vision of the future, alienation of the people and ultimately violence can be mapped out to see how Syria fell into such chaos. The road back to peace will begin with lowering the weapons, increased communication, inclusion of the people and building a common vision of the way forward.

How do you help?

Over the past five months I have been helping with a very ugly conflict.  One where truth has been killed so many times that it is difficult for the larger population to even know what to believe.  When sitting at the table I can look both sides in the heart.  I know where the lies began and where the truth stopped, yet the conflict is no longer about what is true or who is wrong.  The conflict now is how to rebuild on a foundation destroyed.

Trust is no longer alive due to fact that there have been too many lies and atrocities.  For one side of this conflict, they are in a situation where even the lives of those in harms way are not thought of.  It is a continual fight to ensure that their story is the story everyone will trust.  How do you go about that when that story is false? How do you help when the foundation of knowledge is flawed?

As in all conflict, it begins and ends in the mind.  We fight each other because we believe.  How do you help in a situation where there is a broken psyche, paranoia, and the only way out is to ensure the people that are closest feel equal or more pain?

The society is torn apart, the current leader is bent on revenge at all cost.  Removing the leader may seem simple.  However there is enough support that doing so will cause a great amount of harm.  “Do no harm”, is a popular phrase in the world of peace and conflict.  Yet when cancer spreads the short term harm may indeed save the entire person. 

There are many options. One option is to allow the situation to continue and we do what we can to help the people as the current leader plays out their time.  At the moment it seems that is what is going to happen in Syria, Bahrain, Yemen – the list goes on.

There is no greater sorrow in my heart or in my mind than the moments where trust in others has been destroyed.  To be harmed by a person you had trusted is a moment of such great pain that death can be welcome thought.   Each time I encounter such an experience it is never easier.  The only positive is that I know I have gotten through it before, I hope I will again.

The people that are lost and will be lost are thought of daily.  I wish them a peaceful after life.  For those that are saved I hope they carry with them the knowledge that peace is better than war.  There is no peace when the use of fear, violence, destruction, torture and deceit are used to gain.