Syrian ceasefire

Finally a Syrian ceasefire agreement has been put in place. If history teaches us anything, we will have continuous breaches of the agreement and few complete breakdowns. There is no sense in debating who is at fault because the reality is both sides are. The one area that is of concern is the breach of the international border.

In truth, how that breach came to be will be a mystery. What we do know is that refugee camps have been safety zones and recruitment camps for rebel forces. Also we know that Turkey is on record supporting the opposition forces. With those two realities it is very easy to calculate that the camps in Turkey are opposition strong holds and military equipment is passing through this border.

What is the current government of Syria to do? Their neighbour is openly supporting the opposition groups and calling for the current leadership in Syria to step down. This situation is one that breeds mistrust and weakens the possibility of peace.

The only people that should be listened to are the Syrian people. Right now many media outlets are a mouth piece and the information is highly questionable from both sides. Most foreign news outlets focus on the Friends of Syria which openly supports more weapons, violence and the fall of government. The media inside Syria is state run and equal in bias as the opposition. Each point of accusation is one that can be made towards both sides.

With the ceasefire agreement there is to be an Observer Force. Now it is beyond my comprehension why such a force is still waiting for approval for the United Nations Security Council. This Council knew months ago of this condition and yet is only now putting the force together. This force should have been on the ground two minutes after the agreement went into force, not days or weeks.

When the Observers do land in Syria there will be more opportunity for balanced information. Again the opportunity will be there, let us hope that both sides allow the Observers to do their jobs openly and without hassle.

As mentioned before, Turkey is fast becoming a thorn in this situation. Turkey has called upon NATO to assist with border protection and security. To me NATO has about as much credibility as the Syrian government. Many of the NATO members have called for and supplied military equipment to opposition forces. Due to that fact there is little trust in NATO to be fair or equal in its operational ideology.

At the moment we have a very difficult spot when it comes to international intervention/observation. The people will all have issues of credibility that come to the task of intervention. However the focus has to be on the process more so than the people. With that understanding the ceasefire agreement needs to be strongly supported by all sides.

The next step is to focus on the discussion for peaceful society. The call to protest that was given by opposition forces was wrong. Such a tactic only ignites the flames of hatred. The call should have been for discussion of peace not protest. The focus of the discussions have already been pointed out and agreed to by the people of Syria and the current leadership. The referendum of 26 Feb is the starting point.

There is always a way towards peace. However it takes a great deal of effort to look past the injustices people feel have been incurred. The chance for peace is here if the people have enough wisdom to work together. Sadly it has been my experience that the desire to seek revenge will win for now. I sincerely hope the ceasefire agreement holds forever.

Syrian path to peace

Who started the fighting? That question is one that is often put to the world when we seek to bring order to the violence. In reality when the violence starts it rarely matters who started the fight. The first order of business is to stop the fight. However, we are hearing that question all too often in the case of Syria.

The recent fighting has now crossed into Turkey. Again we do not know who fired across the border first. Anyone with a small amount of tactical knowledge will understand how easy it is to stage such an event. A small group of five people can lure a tank within range, overtake it while ensuring it is operational and then fire all rounds off. Honestly, at this point it hardly matters as we can be sure that neither side will adhere to a ceasefire agreement. This is leaving the world few options. The one option that needs to be thrown out is the arming of the opposition forces. Arming the opposition will only ensure the chaos continues, death toll rise and more instability within the region.  

If the world is so concerned to bring peace to Syria, send peacekeepers, observers, medical aid and food aid. Enforce an arms embargo, tighten the borders as much as possible and put equal pressure on every side to stop killing each other. These are the measures that must be taken. However, I do not hold out much hope for such measures being taken.

It has been reported a great many times that the opposition a fragile coalition. There is less support within Syria for the opposition than the current government. Furthermore, the opposition is composed of known international terrorists with very little desire for peace. We also know that if the current leadership within Syria falls there will be a major power vacuum. That vacuum will be filled many groups all fighting for power. That is a scenario worse than what is currently taking place in Syria.

If the current leadership falls, Syria will be a haven for weapons smuggling in that region. Iraq is already a prime route for such. Syria will only provide more avenues for the destabilization of the entire region. Looking forward that would lead to attacks on Jordan, Israel, Iran, Lebanon and Turkey. Of course that is pure speculation as it points to a “what if” scenario. Yet that reality must be front on mind when looking at the current push for the leadership in Syria to step down.

At the moment there is no credible leadership to take its place. Despite what the Friends of Syria say. The world has been told that options in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan were better than the old leadership. In each case those regions are no better today than they were fifteen years ago, perhaps worse.

As brutal as it seems, the current leadership in Syria must remain if peace is the true goal. The world needs to focus on the 26 Feb referendum that called for political change. That is the foothold for peace. It is a legally binding process that the people of Syria have asked for, the current leadership has endorsed and the international community would be wise in pursuing.

There is still a major need for peacekeepers, observers, humanitarian aid and international journalists to have access within Syria. None of these should be seen as a breakdown in sovereignty. To the contrary, such measures should be seen as a boost to Syrian sovereignty. There is an international campaign being waged inside Syria to topple the government and the international community should help to bring that opposition.

Syrian referndum of 26 Feb needs to be the foundation for peace.

For a society to remain peaceful the people have to take responsibility to ensure that environment. With each person, the leaders have to be more diligent in their efforts to remain trustworthy and honest. When issues of difficulty arise the need for peaceful dialogue is at its utmost importance.

During times of difficulty ideology will clash. This is a fact of reality and the root of most violent conflicts. For a society to remain peaceful there needs to be the voice of reason. The voice needs to be someone that will stand up and point out the common elements of understanding, goals, ideology and the reality that each person cares about the future. That person needs to have the trust of the people though. In Syria there are few people that have that trust and even fewer people standing up to voice the commonalities of the conflicting parties.

Who do we have standing up to speak of peace in Syria? The Friends of Syria have acted in a manner which is more an enemy of Syria than a friend. The current leadership in Syria has a tenuous grip on any perceptions of being peaceful. As for a single person, there is only one person that has any form of trust or credibility and that is the United Nations envoy, Kofi Annan.

We need to ask why the results of the 26 Feb referendum have so quickly been forgotten about? Why have the Friends of Syria not pressed upon those results? Why have the Friends of Syria continually called for more weapons? Why have the Friends of Syria worked so hard to discredit the current leadership in Syria knowing that such a tactic will only prolong the violence. Why have the Friends of Syria worked so hard to discredit Russia and China, when those two countries have only called for peaceful discussion within the legal framework of Syrian and international law?

The Friends of Syria have equalled the current leadership within Syria in terms of prolonging the violence. If peace is the return quickly, the Friends of Syria must change their tactics to be more aligned with Russia and China. The call for a universal ceasefire, weapons embargo, highly enforced border security to the point of almost lock down with only food and medical aid to be allowed in and strong pressure to get all sides into discussions.

The phrase “all sides” deals with only the people within Syria. The only outsider taking part in the discussions should be the United Nations envoy Kofi Annan, no one else, not one more person from outside. This is a Syrian process and it is theirs to manage. The international community can assist by providing peacekeepers to ensure that law and order are maintained. Journalist and ngo’s can also enter so that the rebuild can start and is monitored.  

The discussions already have a foundation with the 26 Feb referendum. That process indicated the need for a new constitution as well as a new political system. The world needs to support that process. The world needs to look at the reality within the Syrian population two years ago. The country was on a path to peace. As always peace does not arrive quickly enough for some and so they resort to violence. That is the reality which is lost in all of this.

Friends of Syria, Not

Truth is the first casualty of war. To prove that point again we have the situation with the Friends of Syria and the Syrian National Council. Both of these groups have very little support inside Syria. Both these groups are engaging in activities that are breaking international law and neither of these groups have been serious about finding a peaceful solution to the violence in Syria.

The Friends of Syria have continually called for the need to provide military support to the opposition. This action alone will only support further violence. Furthermore, why is it that the Friends of Syria do not included anyone from the current government in Syria?

Next, you have to question the actual support the Syrian National Council holds within Syria itself. We know that one of these groups that support the Syrian National Council is Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is an enemy of most of the Friends of Syria yet in this situation they are partners. Such logic is unexplainable.

The last report which spoke to the internal support of the Syrian National Council barely acknowledged 15% of the total population. Even within the Syrian National Council there exist divisions. This Council is a spur of the moment ad hoc group at best. The thirst for power is equal to each point of opposition they hold for the current leadership within Syria.

The United Nations envoy to Syria has made great strides to put in place a cease fire agreement, which neither the Friends of Syria or the Syrian National Council have indicated the opposition forces will adhere to. However there is a strong call for the current government to adhere to the ceasefire agreement.

Sadly, the future is quite clear that there will be no ceasefire on 10 April. If such a reality exists I will be completely shocked, I hope I will be.

What of the Russia and China? Both these countries have continually called for the violence to stop, the weapons to sanctioned, external groups to leave Syria and for both sides to sit down and hammer out a way forward. The Friends of Syria have derailed both Russia and China as enemies of the opposition and killers of the United Nations Security Council resolution. That resolution was killed because it only called for the government to cease fire, sought to bring down a government which would have created a power vacuum and put in place a system doomed to increase and prolong violence.

This media campaign to paint the Friends of Syria and the Syrian National Council is a giant lie. It is glossing over the current illegal activity of supplying weapons and military aid. It is false in its accusations that Russia and China are against a peaceful resolution and it is false that Russia and China are supporting the current party of rule in Syria in its efforts to continue fighting.

Syria is in a very difficult situation and the Friends of Syria are making it worse.

With friends like that who needs enemies?

Syria and Libya are on similar paths, although Libya is a few months further ahead. Both are flirting with death. With each bullet fired, chaos wins and peace dies. The frustration with those that continue to increase violence fuels the desire to let war reach its pinnacle as soon as possible. Of course these desires should be restrained.

 Living in a country that has a leader which is not to be trusted is very difficult. No amount of goodwill can be built, you always feel a gun pointed at you, discussion seems useless and the system corrupt. When life gets to such a state violence quickly becomes the only way a person can feel they have done something to express their disgust.

You see, that is what people need. People need to voice their displeasures. There has to be an outlet for the pressure of emotions. There has to be an option for a way out. People can not live in hopelessness. People will fight, kill and accept death themselves if there is no hope. Hope is needed so much that we have created religions so that people have something to hold on to when life is seen as pointless. To some degree this has backfired and now we have people fighting about which religion is the best one to believe in. Pure insanity.

A leader that lacks credibility yet holds the larger share of physical force is a leader that will use fear and violence to retain power. Such a leader knows they do not have the intelligence, compassion or right to stay in power. The only way to keep their power is to use fear and violence. These leaders do not have to be rulers of countries, they can be warlords, gang leaders, religious leaders or anyone. How many families are forced to live in terror because of such a person?

Within Syria we have many such people. No matter what they call themselves, whether it be the Syrian National Council, Friends of Syria or the Revolutionary Syrian Freedom Front. These groups show their true character in the continually call for increased weapon support. No amount of weapons will solve this because no weapon can work without a person to operate it.

As I mentioned above there is the point when a person can no longer live in restraint. That point is a reality, yet it is all too often used for the weak minded. We are seeing the weak minded come together in the Friends of Syria coalition. We are seeing the weak minded in Libya that are still fighting.

Peace takes great courage. We need more courage in Syria and Libya. We need the voices of peace not only for the people within these countries, also for the regional countries. Leaders that are peaceful and are trusted to be so, have opposition yet the opposition understands there is no need for violence. Again I must state the stupidity of those that counter with the fact that a peaceful person leaves themselves open to violence. That line of thought is a reality but we are trying to build a world where such violence is obsolete, are we not? With friends that have such a mentality, who needs enemies?