Path to Peace in Syria

Bring peace to Syria will be as difficult as everyone wants it to be. From the very beginning the breakdown of peace was only helped to grow even more chaotic. Here we are today and once again the United Nations is going to take the blame for a peace operations failure.

Right of the top the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council fought each other instead of work together. The western countries (United Kingdom, France, Republic of the United States) are as much to blame for the breakdown as Russia and China. Each country has played politics with more of a domestic attention towards their own countries than they have towards Syria. That is the absolute reality. This entire situation could have been avoided if the will was there, yet it was not.

That lack of will was so clear from the outset that the current situation was as predictable as the sun shining. The immediate call for regime change was and still is the largest mistake made by many of the world leaders.  This mistake brought about many other mistakes. There is no good reason why only thirty Observers on the ground now. There is no good reason for supplying military equipment to opposition forces. There is no good reason for training forces outside of Syria and supporting their efforts to return to Syria.

What needs to be done now?

·         The ceasefire agreement still needs to be a point of focus. With that the Observer force needs to get on the ground as soon as possible in numbers of at least a thousand, more if possible.

·         Foreign journalists are good secondary observes but they can also be used for propagandist purposes. This is where people (like me) have to sift through all the information, find the sources, biases and reality. Truth can be manufactured and that needs to be deeply understood.

·         All border crossings and points of entry need to be locked down as tight as possible.

·         Arms embargo needs to be enforced and the complete disarming of all forces started immediately.

·         The world leaders need to support the legal structure of Syria and its constitution. The current government is the only legitimate leadership structure and that is the only avenue open for discussions.

·         The 26 February referendum results need to be a focal point of peace talks

·         A large peacekeeping force needs to be operational in conjunction with the Observer Force

These points are going to be almost impossible to implement, if it all. We know that the world leaders from outside Syria have only made things worse. Now we have to end that method and start within Syria.

As we look at the body count rising and the cities destroyed, we have to keep in mind that both sides of this must share equal responsibility. As internationals we must adhere to the current laws of Syria. Also we must focus on solutions and a future of peace. The current government of Syria has to be convinced that a peacekeeping force is not a breakdown of sovereignty. A peacekeeping force is there to strengthen the sovereignty of Syria.

Currently we are all embroiled in the chaos of violent conflict. Such a state clouds the mind and cements the cycle of hatred. As you read or watch the news take that frame of understanding and look past the blame and shouting that fills most media reports. We must tell our own governments to take such a view but first we must take that step. As you begin to see past through the cycle of hatred you can look to other wars like Palestine and Israel. Thus begins a new effort and path to peace.

Syrian Mess

Within the past three weeks, Syria has become more complicated. With Observer Forces going in to monitor the ceasefire, the call to protest and the formation of a new opposition group, Syria is running head long into stagnant chaos.

From the outset of the ceasefire we knew there were going to be breaches. In all honesty neither side (Syrian government or any opposition group) is trustworthy. Due to that, the claims about who is breaking the ceasefire can not be trusted, nor should it matter.  The only fact that needs to be heralded is that people are still fighting, from all sides.

The Observer Force is slow in being fully implemented. This is caused by the Permanent Five members of the United Nations Security Council dragging its feet. To be blunt, the entire situation in Syria was avoidable had those five worked together instead of playing politics from the outset. Now we are up to our waist in chaos. Nothing we can do about the past so let us focus on solving the situation.

There is a new group titled Transitional National Government seeking legitimacy. As events unfold there will be others as the bickering about who is legitimate and who is not. The reality is there is only one legitimate government and they are in power. It is not only the government in power, every other opposition group is also power hungry.

As it stands now, I do not see a way out of this situation unless a large peacekeeping force is brought in. The Observer Force is being implemented too slowly for what ever reason and with each day the ceasefire becomes less and less meaningful.  Furthermore, I have no idea why outside groups continue to illegally support the opposition forces with military equipment. Such countries should be held to account by the United Nations Security Council.

Another step forward is to grab hold of the 26 Feb referendum results. Those results are a bedrock for rebuilding Syria and yet no one is mentioning them. Those results were voted on by the people of Syria and called for electoral change. Why has no group bothered to press for those changes to be made? Why is it only focused on the ousting of the current government violently?

We have been witnessing how the opposition function and this is through the use of violence as well. With that in mind there is no clear peaceful solution if any of the current groups take power.  The best possible way forward is for a massive peacekeeping force to enter and patrol the entire country. While that is being done the constitutional talks can take place.

This will be a long process and more people will die before it is all over. This entire situation is a mess mostly because the leaders of the world have been fighting each other instead of working on a solution.

Afghanistan, what a mess.

Sadly the future of Afghanistan is looking to be as peaceful as it was in 2001. Already there are those that point to past wrongs that need to be answered. Now of course those wrongs need to be healed but the greater need is for the violence, war and general chaos to stop. To do this there needs to be a great effort from the regional leadership. Such a strategy has never been used to its fullest potential.

For the past ten years the use of weapons to bring peace in Afghanistan has failed. I wish it were not a failure but the reality is very evident that peace is far, far away.  Anyone that says the Afghanistan war has been a success is blind, stupid, ignorant or just lying. The reason for the failure is due to poor leadership.

At the outset of the war, the Taliban made it known that they were willing to fight for decades, not just one, many. The International Security Forces (ISAF), were fractured in both the ideology of military strategy and the ideology for going to war. These fractures lead to serious issues of commitment within the coalition forces. All these combined set the stage for a failed war. Today we are seeing greater attacks from the Taliban within Kabul and throughout Afghanistan.

What can be done now? We need to come to the realization that Afghanistan is back to square one. The regional peace may actually be worse than it was in 2001. Also we have to grasp the fact that Pakistan is itself embroiled in many battles. Next we have to ask where are the other countries that border Afghanistan?  They need to be at the table for peace as well. These are China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

These countries all have a vested interest in peace. Some may feel they are less so but that is for each of them to decide. The reality is the region is in chaos. A path forward needs to be mapped out because at present there is no idea or plan for regional peace.

There is one common element and that is no one wants the return of the Taliban. Much like the Nazi party, few of us see little reason for their existence. Most of us see the Taliban as a cancerous organization yet we have no medicine for its cure.  For peace talks to happen there has to be common ground. We know the Taliban has one condition to peace and that is the complete dismissal of the RUSA forces. The Afghanistan government has asked the RUSA to leave. They have stated that their date of exit 2014. That leaves the peace talks with the Taliban stagnant. Sadly a military effort will still be needed for an unknown time, perhaps for ever.

Basically we are left with the fact that the regional powers need to formulate a plan. They all need to engage in a common element of regional co-operation. The most important element is the need for action that is going to bring peace. The rhetoric and lies have to end.

Now we have to ask, Are the people in power now the right people? Who else is there that can be trusted to bring peace? Lastly, how do we fight a ghost which is the Taliban terrorizing an entire region?