Thursday, October 27, 2011

Africa? What next?

It is always a desire that we learn from the past.  As we move along there will be situations that arise in which circumstances remind us of past mistakes.  I have recently come across some futurist writing about politics on the African continent.  I find these futurist writings to be a bit of conspiracy theory but there is always a piece of truth to be had.  What I was reading made me think of what Africa was like during 1920's and continuing into the 1990's, is that going to return?  This is my futurist/conspiracy thought now:
The permanent five (Russia, Britian, France, China and USA* I think we should start using the moniker RUSA because it is really the Republic of the United States of America thus RUSA) are heading down a path for more proxy wars on the African continent.  Not that either country is fully aware of doing so but I think it will be a situation that will morph into such a situation - if we do not stop history from repeating itself. 

Of the five, Britain and RUSA have been fighting really tough wars since 2002.  France and Russia have been engaged in wars with Russia more so and are good for more.  China has not really been all that active outside it own borders but may step into a proxy war.  Also, China and India have been increasing their economic impact on the African continent for the past decade.  Why would such proxy wars take place?
The world economy is not good and may get worse.  War has been a staple of economic improvement theory since 1945 with the industrial complex.  Furthermore there has been no clear winner in Iraq or Afghanistan and the steam from that ego hit must be released somehow.  Chechnya along with the tense situation with Georgia that Russia is dealing with is far from over. China has a growing middle class and at some point they are going to seek higher pay.  That will drive costs up and there will need to be cheap labour.  Cheap labour, oil, resources, arms trade, market share and power struggles are all part of this intricate dance being played out.
Of course these are just crazy thoughts of possible realities.  I pray that none of this is even remotely accurate.
Dark days are ahead. More and more African societies are deeply divided internally. Africans need to reflect on the fall of Gaddafi and, before him, that of Gbagbo in Cote d'Ivoire. Will these events usher in an era of external interventions, each welcomed internally as a mechanism to ensure a change of political leadership in one country after another?

One thing should be clear: those interested in keeping external intervention at bay need to concentrate their attention and energies on internal reform.

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